News Release

September 17, 2012C

 

Predictions - GHANA 2012 general elections:

DaMina statistical model predicts Opposition NPP poised to recapture presidency and parliament

Traditional incumbency advantages will not help Mahama during two and half month long campaign

Victory by NPP will see reversal in country’s currency, fiscal, education and foreign policies

2010 national census confirms pro-NPP Ashanti region as most populous region

NDC party disunity and absence of key campaigner former President Rawlings to dent tough 2012 campaign

Despite likelihood of capital Accra remaining in NDC hands, opposition to win national vote by about 5%

Nomination of Muslim opposition vice president, in contrast to all-Christian NDC ticket to weaken traditional Muslim support for NDC

Mahama-Amissah Arthur NDC ticket electorally weaker than Akuffu Addo-Bawumiah NPP ticket

Sympathy from ethnic Fante’s for recently deceased president will not translate into decisive NDC votes

Key oil producing Western region to flip to NPP after generalized disappointment on oil revenues, jobs

Swing Brong-Ahafo region to back Akan-ist NPP over now northern-led NDC

45 new parliamentary seats to also generally favor opposition NPP


Submitted by:  Nana Otuo
 

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