Kenya’s Supreme Court (SC) to Rule on Election Complaints Tomorrow (March 30)

Petition challenging election results is a carbon-copy of that before Ghana’s Supreme Court, challenging the results of the Dec 7 elections. Three strands:

1. Substantial number of people voted without biometric verification.

2. Over-vote: Cases where number of votes cast exceeded number of registered voters.

3. Electoral rolls inflated with “ghost names” for the presidential results.

Kenya’s Supreme Court (SC) is unlikely to declare Kenyatta or Odinga the winner. That would imply usurping the function of another institution, the Electoral Commission. Most likely, the SC will punt the issue back to the Electoral Commission say, “We found credible evidence of vote and tally irregularities, so fix them.”

The Electoral Commission would be loath to admit it made mistakes and might attribute the irregularities to “human error.” It is unlikely the EC would fix the problem and declare Odinga the winner. That would make it look foolish, confirming suspicion that it knew all along that Odinga had won and did everything possible to deny him victory.

Instead, the Electoral Commission might opt for a face-saving ploy: It might say, upon review, neither of the two candidates received 50 percent of the vote and, therefore, a run-off is necessary. Even then, the EC would look even more ridiculous with that gambit. The presidential and parliamentary elections were held at the same time. How do you convince the people that the presidential elections were fraught with irregularities but not the parliamentary?

The only satisfactory solution is to annul the entire election results and hold completely new and fresh elections with a new Electoral Commissioner. Isaak Hassan, the current one, should be sacked. He can’t be trusted. But then, some would argue that fresh new elections would be costly; however, not that much more compared to a run-off.

A run-off is more likely to spark violence as it would be a “do-or-die” proposition for Kenyatta and Ruto. A defeat would strip them of any immunity or protection from ICC prosecution. Nor is a win likely as the 6 other candidates might throw their support for Odinga. Regardless, it is a mess and things don’t look too good.

A ruling by Kenya’s Supreme Could will most likely reverberate in Ghana, where its Supreme Court is deliberating on exactly the same petition. John Mahama “won” 50.7 percent of the vote in Ghana’s Dec 7 elections – exactly the same percentage “won” by Uhuru Kenyatta. Coincidence? In the case of Ghana, there is a complicating factor: John Mahama has already been sworn in a president.

George Ayittey,
Washington, DC, March 30, 2013

 

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