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After the Plane Bomber, Where in the World is
Nigeria’s President?
By Todd Moss
Amid all the media frenzy around the
Nigerian underwear bomber and how
America should have stopped him before he tried
to blow up a passenger plane
on Christmas Day, a critical piece to the
counter-terrorism puzzle seems
to have been missed: where in the world is the Nigerian
President?
Normally, after such a horrific incident, President
Obama would be on the phone
with his counterpart, discussing what went wrong and
agreeing on ways to work
better in the future to prevent such attacks. But this
couldn’t happen because Nigeria’s President Umaru
Yar’Adua left his country for
medical treatment in Saudi Arabia on November 23rd and
hasn’t been seen or heard from
since.
Yes, you read that right: the whereabouts of the leader
of
Nigeria—America’s most important strategic ally in
Africa, the fifth
largest source of U.S. oil imports, and home to 150
million people—are unknown. It
is also not clear if he is alive or dead.
The situation is so uncertain that Nigeria’s parliament
is openly
considering sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia to find
out the truth. A major
opposition party yesterday demanded, quite reasonably,
some “proof of life”.
The mystery over Yar’Adua is so bizarre as to be
comical—if the
consequences weren’t so severe. His absence has thrust
the country into an immediate
constitutional crisis. The President failed to delegate
authority to his deputy before travelling,
effectively leaving no one in
charge. This 43-days-and-counting power vacuum is being
swiftly filled by an insular
cabal bent on exploiting the situation for their own
gain.
Complicating matters, the vice president—ironically
named Goodluck
Jonathan—is a Christian and an Ijaw, part of a minority
group from the southern Niger
Delta region and far from the power centers of the
northern Muslim elites who
expect one of their own to run the country. There is
much speculation that insiders are scheming now
of ways to keep Jonathan from
ever assuming power. In an ominous sign, a new chief
justice was quickly (and
possibly illegally) sworn in last week.
These developments all put Nigeria’s future at great
risk. A decade of
constitutional democracy is threatened by the specter of
mass violence and a possible
military coup.
The failed terrorist attack by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab
on Northwest Flight 253
highlights that Nigeria’s power void is dangerous for
the U.S. as well. The
foundation of a counter-terrorism strategy is to build
cooperative partnerships with friendly nations.
This means sharing information
and helping to build security capacity in places like
Yemen, Afghanistan, and
Nigeria.
But we cannot have a partnership if there is no one on
the other end of the line.
Nigeria cannot be a reliable ally if it is consumed by
its own corruption and
political machinations. In this way, Nigeria is rapidly
becoming more like Somalia—a failed state with no
real government to cooperate
with—than a real partner.
What can the United States do? First, it should insist
on an immediate public
declaration of President Yar’Adua’s health and fitness
to govern.
If the President’s staff refuse to oblige, then the U.S.
should encourage the national
assembly to assert its constitutional responsibilities
when it reconvenes on January
12.
Second, if, as seems likely, Yar’Adua is in fact
incapacitated, the U.S. must
demand that the constitution be followed and power
transferred to the vice
president. The long-term security of Nigeria depends on
entrenching the rule of law
and this must supersede any palace intrigue or political
bargaining.
Third, it is clear that whatever the outcome over the
next few weeks, Nigeria will
remain on a knife’s edge until elections in 2011. Any
hope for a more stable country
hinges on a credible election next year.
Yar’Adua came to power in a deeply flawed poll in April
2007 and almost no steps have
since been taken to fix the broken system. The U.S. is
in a unique position to push
for and help deliver a better election that would
strengthen the authority and legitimacy of the
next government.
Last, the U.S. can support Nigeria’s vibrant civil
society that is clearly fed up
and is increasingly demanding change.
The case of the missing Nigerian President is a wake up
call to the United States
about the vulnerability of many of our global partners.
How we respond is not only
crucial to the future of an important ally, but a
critical test of our strategy for building
partnerships in troubled places
to combat the global ills of our time.
Todd Moss is vice president and a senior fellow at the
Center for Global Development
in Washinbgton, DC.
By Todd Moss
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