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Commentary Page
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Ghana's 2012 Election Petition:
the Supreme Court's Verdict and a Voting Paradox
J. Atsu Amegashie
On August 29, 2013, the Supreme Court of Ghana announced its
verdict on the petition filed by Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo-Addo,
Mahamadu Bawumia, and Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey challenging the
validity of the election of President John Dramani Mahama in the
December 2012 presidential election.
John Mahama was deemed by the Court to have been validly elected
as president based on the following votes by the nine justices
on the six irregularities, violations and malpractices
(hereafter irregularities) alleged by the petitioners:
Over-voting: dismissed 5-4,
Voting without Biometric Verification: dismissed 5-4,
Absence of presiding officer’s signature: dismissed 5-4,
Duplicate Serial numbers: dismissed unanimously,
Duplicate Polling Station Codes: dismissed unanimously,
Unknown Polling Stations: dismissed unanimously.
However, five justices (Julius Ansah, Rose Owusu, Kwasi
Anin-Yeboah, Jones Dotsey, and Paul Baffoe-Bonnie), a majority,
annulled the votes and ordered a re-run in affected polling
stations and yet this was not the Court's verdict. Why? Before I
answer this question, let me state that this article is not
about the quality of the justices' legal opinions or the
strength of the petitioners' evidence. Its focus is the voting
rule adopted by the Supreme Court.
The five aforementioned justices did not order a re-run based on
the same electoral irregularities. For example, Baffoe-Bonnie's
order was based on voting without biometric verification while
Dotsey's was based on over-voting and absence of signatures.
These two justices did not agree on the same irregularity.
Therefore, a majority of the judges did not vote for the same
electoral irregularity. If Dotsey and Baffoe-Bonnie had agreed
on only one irregularity, there would have
been a re-run in some polling stations. Ansah, Owusu,
Anin-Yeboah granted the three irregularities of over-voting,
lack of signatures, and no biometric verification and ordered a
rerun in affected polling stations based on these
irregularities.
In the KPMG report (audit), there were several instances in
which the alleged irregularities of (a) over-voting, lack of
signatures, and no biometric verification or (b) no biometric
verification and either over-voting or lack of signatures,
occurred in the same polling stations. This point is not crucial
because what matters is that the five justices had seen what
they believed was evidence of such polling stations. Therefore,
even without the commonality of reasons between Baffoe-
Bonnie and Dotsey, had the justices been asked to list the
polling stations in which they wanted are-run, a majority of
them (the five above) would have listed a common set of polling
stations
but not necessarily for the same reasons (electoral
irregularities).
Therefore, a majority of the judges (the five above) indeed
agreed on a common set of polling stations for a re-run. But
because they had different reasons (irregularities) for doing so
and given that the Supreme Court voted on one alleged
irregularity at a time (not irregularities in general), this
preference of the majority was suppressed.
In effect, the subtle implication of the Supreme Court's voting
process was as follows: "although a majority of the justices
preferred a
re-run in polling station X, that could not be the outcome of
the voting process because they all did not agree on the reason
(electoral irregularity) for ordering the re-run in that polling
station. There must be a majority of justices granting a
particular irregularity for there to be a re-run on the basis of
that irregularity alone."
On April 2, 2013, the Supreme Court set down the issues for
trial as follows:
1. Whether or not there were violations, omissions, malpractices
and irregularities in the conduct
of the presidential election held on the 7th and 8th December,
2012;
2. Whether or not the said violations, omissions, malpractices
and irregularities, if any, affected the results of the
election.
The Court chose to deal with these two issues for determination
in six separate ways. So it, in effect, determined (a) whether
or not there was the electoral irregularity of voting without
biometric verification and whether it affected the results, (b)
whether or not there was the
electoral irregularity of over-voting and whether it affected
the results, and so on.
It should have instead determined whether there were the
electoral irregularities, omissions, violations and whether they
affected the results as the court had set down for trial. The
justices’ reasons for
their votes would have been revealed in their written opinions
on the alleged six electoral irregularities. Our Supreme Court
does not have the leeway to impose a rigid sequence of voting
per irregularity because it is standard legal practice that
majority decisions, in this case a decision that the
irregularities affected the outcome of election and a preference
for a run-off in the same set of polling stations, can be
supported by different reasons or legal opinions. This explains
why
even consenting justices have the option of writing separate
opinions. Indeed, this is common.
It is also mind-boggling that the Court had set down the issues
for trial on April 2, 2013 and yet in delivering its verdict,
the Court gave the impression that the issues set for trial only
became known to it (the Court) upon reading the written address
of the counsel for the petitioners: "Upon a scrutiny of the
petition, we found that the issues to be determined are as set
out at page 125 of the counsel for the petitioners’ written
address were as follows ..."
It is tempting to justify the Supreme Court's voting process by
drawing an analogy between an election petition and, for
example, a criminal trial. The six alleged irregularities by the
petitioners could be seen as six different charges (e.g.,
first-degree murder, manslaughter,
kidnapping, etc) brought by the plaintiff (the State) against a
defendant in a criminal trial. A jury or a panel of judges votes
on one charge (count) at a time. The defendant is acquitted if
s/he is
found "not guilty" on each count.
In my opinion, there is a pitfall in this analogy because the
alleged electoral irregularities were not only charges of
wrongdoing but were also the pieces of evidence on the vote
tally forms (i.e., "on the face of the pink sheets") to support
the reliefs sought by the petitioners. For example, the
allegation of pink sheets with no signatures of the presiding
officers could be determined by simply looking at the pink
sheet. Therefore, as is the case in a criminal trial, it is the
totality of the evidence which should form the basis for
determining the validity of the president's election.
In a murder trial, the ultimate question before the Court of
jury is "Did the defendant commit the crime of murder?". In an
election petition, the ultimate question before the Court is
"Was the election valid?". In either case, the Court or jury
should look at the evidence in its totality.
A justice who ordered a re-run must have believed that a re-run
would have affected the outcome of the election. Otherwise, a
re-run, in his/her view, would be a pointless exercise. For
example, Justice Dotse in his opinion stated that:
"In a vast majority of the categories, I can conclusively say
that they have had no effect on the outcome of the elections
whatsoever. However, when cumulatively put together, the said
violations may affect the outcome of the elections.… since I
have upheld in its entirety the “No presiding officer signature
category”, albeit with a
different and much reduced set of pink sheets, I must admit
these may affect the outcome of the results of the presidential
elections. The petitioner’s relief one (i.e., 1) will therefore
be granted in respect of the No Presiding Officer Signature
Category ..." Parenthesis mine.
Relief 1 was "That John Dramani Mahama, the 2nd Respondent
herein was not validly elected President of the Republic of
Ghana." It stands to reason that the five justices who ordered a
rerun did not believe that John Mahama was validly elected.
Therefore, how did the Court come to the conclusion, as
announced by Justice William Atuguba, that the overall effect of
the justices' votes on the six irregularities was that John
Mahama “… was validly elected ...” There is an
inconsistency or conundrum here which smacks of a subtle and
repugnant feature of the voting process adopted by the Supreme
Court. Can the Court tell us or can we glean from the Court’s
judgment whether a majority of the justices held that President
Mahama was validly elected? I don’t think so. This is puzzling.
Therefore even if, on the basis of a legal technicality, one
insists
on arguing that voting on each irregularity at a time was valid,
there appears to be a worrisome implication of the Court's
voting process.
This suggests that the application of a standard feature
of voting in legal trials to election petitions may lead to
paradoxical outcomes. But without voting separately on each
irregularity, how could the Supreme Court have given us
directions on future elections or interpreted our electoral
laws?
I have three responses to this question.
First, given that the petition was primarily filed to challenge
the validity of the 2012 election, a bigger weight should be put
on determining the validity of the 2012 election than the
Supreme Court’s verdict acting as a guide to future elections.
Future elections will be judged on their merits.
Second, the Court’s verdict on some of the alleged
irregularities like over-voting will not be necessarily
applicable to all future allegations of over-voting. The quality
of the evidence of over-voting may differ in future election
petitions (e.g., the polling agents of the
petitioners’ party may not sign the pink sheets). In fact, some
of the justices (e.g., Atuguba) did not give an opinion on
whether voting with biometric fingerprint verification was
lawful because they argued that the petitioners did not
establish their allegation of voting without biometric
verification.
Finally, dismissing all the irregularities one at a time does
not necessarily imply that the majority of the justices do not
believe that the cumulative effect of all the irregularities did
not affect the outcome of the election. These are two different
issues and the latter issue (i.e., the validity of the election
in general) should not be sidestepped in the maze of legal
technicalities.
This boils down to the ultimate question before the Court. Was
it (a) did each alleged irregularity, viewed in isolation from
all the others, affect the validity of the election?, or (b) did
the alleged irregularities cumulatively affect the validity of
the election?
The outcome of the petition may be seen as a variant of a
well-known paradox of voting. The paradox of voting was
discovered over 200 years ago by Nicolas de Condorcet, a French
mathematician, philosopher, economist, and social scientist. Its
basic insight is that voting may not lead to optimal preference
aggregation. The paradox of voting is the coexistence of
coherent individual valuations and a collectively incoherent
choice by majority rule. In an election with three or more
alternatives (candidates, motions,, etc.) and three or more
voters, it may happen that when the alternatives are placed
against each other in a series of paired comparisons, no
alternative emerges victorious over each of the others: Voting
fails to produce a clear-cut winner. (William H. Riker, 1982).
Since there is no unique outcome of the voting process, it
follows that one can choose what to vote on and in what sequence
to produce a given outcome. The rules of voting can be
manipulated in subtle ways that do not allow the will or
preferences of the majority to be
expressed. A different set of questions was asked to get the
verdict of the Supreme Court. I don't think that this was
deliberate.
John Mahama is my president and yours. I believe that he would
have been victorious even if there had been a re-run of the
election in the affected polling stations. But that is not the
point of this article. The point is whether our election
petitions should be adjudicated on the basis of the voting rule
adopted by the Supreme Court.
J. Atsu Amegashie, September 6, 2013
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Ghanadot - Tokyo
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beat out Istanbul
and Madrid, and
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Ghana's 2012
Election Petition:
the Supreme Court's
Verdict and a Voting
Paradox
Commentary, Sept
08, Ghanadot - (F)ive
justices (Julius
Ansah, Rose Owusu,
Kwasi Anin-Yeboah,
Jones Dotsey, and
Paul Baffoe-Bonnie),
a majority, annulled
the votes and
ordered a re-run in
affected polling
stations and yet
this was not the
Court's verdict.
Why?......More
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Ghana’s Cedi Weakens to Record on
Import Demand: Accra Mover
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